Following the publication of our Pennant experts research on the Brexit / Covid-19 impact within the aviation and aerospace industry, the team have been researching further and crunching the predicted growth numbers for the sector. We are pleased to share these in article number three of our four-part series ‘A Pennant Perspective’.
Pete Foreman, Head of Training Delivery says “I’m delighted to see the first steps of recovery within the industry and am sure we will continue to see the industry go from strength to strength. It’s been a shame to see the impact of growth within the industry and the flight uptake impact the day-to-day jobs and training experiences for maintainers and operators, air traffic controllers, the ground support team, and people that make a safe flight happen. The reduced hands on, real-time experience, which is looking like it is back on track, highlights the need for different avenues that safely and cost effectively allow students and professionals to learn and refresh their knowledge in a safe and cost-effective environment without always relying on the need for the real equipment.”
A forecast published by the organisation “Eurocontrol” projects air traffic growth from 2021-2024, and is based on three different COVID-19 recovery scenarios. Utilising this forecast along with the Civil Aviation Authority’s (CAA) historical record of commercial flights from UK airports enables the below projections to be proposed:
Scenario 1 the Eurocontrol forecast assumes full vaccine availability to travellers in summer 2021, or the end of the pandemic.
Scenario 2 assumes full vaccine availability in summer 2022, or the end of the pandemic.
Scenario 3 assumes that the pandemic is prolonged, causing lingering infection and low passenger confidence.
The graph below (inspired by information from EuroControl here) shows the overwhelming decline of commercial flight volume in the UK in 2020. Scenario 1 forecasts that the industry will be close to full recovery by 2024, with a -7.14% difference in flight volume in comparison to 2019 levels of activity. While Scenario 2 forecasts -15.35% and Scenario 3 a -31.37% difference in flight volume in 2024 when compared to 2019.
The good signs are that air traffic in the Euro region is still increasing – to 17,347 flights on the 16/06/21, just under half the traffic on the same Wednesday of 2019 and 18,204 flights in the Euro region on Thursday 17th June – above 50% of 2019 level & the busiest Thursday since March 2020.
Given the time Eurocontrol’s research and our Pennant teams work was initially carried out, scenario 1 is now fast upon us and the implementation of global government rules is likely having additional knock-on impacts to the proposed figures and scenarios. With the roll out of vaccine programmes, and the increase in testing, traffic light systems and necessary quarantine we have already seen an increase in flight uptake. We look forward to seeing new industry statistics released over the coming months and the sector getting fully back to where is was.
To ensure your team and students are ready for the predicted growth, Pennant would be happy to discuss our training technology solutions that can train and refresh student knowledge in the industry, through both hardware and software, or provide information on our capability to provide a fully bespoke engineered solution designed specifically for your needs.